Qurenix Review ZuluTrade SP January 2013
This review is being written on January 7th 2013. At this time Qurenix is ranked 5th in the ZuluTrade ranking and has just over $5 million amount following them, making them the 2nd mist popular signal provider. Qurenix has been trading for 20 weeks on ZuluTrade and while we normally prefer to review traders with at least 6 months of trading history, we make this exception mainly due to their current popularity and request received. So based on the Qurenix historical data on ZuluTrade to date of this German based Signal Provider, here’s our review:
- very good results to date (no losing months)
- specialises in 1 currency pair
- low drawdown to date
- stops are closely managed
- trades are managed manually (i.e. no automated system)
- still very limited trading history
- first 2 months’ results (pre-popularity) were higher than those after
- have been changing their strategy (though seem to have reverted back to the old strategy)
- leaves trades open during news events
- do not trade with their own money via ZuluTrade
There’s no arguing with the performance of Qurenix in their first 20 weeks (see image below). A return of 5,192 pips for a maximum drawdown of less than 500 pips is very good. These results have been achieved by trading the EURUSD pair only (i.e. Qurenix specialises in 1 currency pair). Their trading style is short term and almost every trade is opened and closed intra-day. Hence as an investor you have to worry less about overnight/week-end open positions, though you have to accept that some trades will be losing trades.
The number of losing trades is still only 12%, which is very low considering that the stop levels are set fairly close (worst drawdown on a single trade to date was -74). The stop levels themselves seem to be managed manually and depending on the market conditions (e.g. at resistance or support levels, etc.). I.e. there’s no fixed level at which trades get stopped out. It is however unclear what Qurenix’s maximum stop level is, since they don’t mention this in their ZuluTrade strategy description. Therefore if you want to protect your own account you’ll have to go on the limited 20 week trading history during which the worst trade drawdown was -74 and hence assume it’s certainly a bit higher than that level.
All trades also seem to be entered, closed and managed manually as this ZuluTrade signal provider seems to “trade the market” as they see it, instead of using an automated system. We normally see this as a positive since automated systems are unable to react to unscheduled news events or sudden sharp market movements.
When analysing Qurenix’s results you will however notice that most of the profit (4000 pips) was made in their first 10 weeks of trading on ZuluTrade (from 10 August until 19th October). As mentioned in our ZuluTrade tips this is a regular occurrence with ZuluTrade Signal Providers. The main reason for this is that in the first few months, the Signal Provider will not have any followers and hence often takes more risk (since they don’t have to worry about losing followers and because they don’t trade with their own money they can always start with another ZuluTrade account if they blow one). Another reason is often that trading for yourself is significantly different than trading for other people, certainly if you start reading and caring about the feedback comments (or start focusing on the commissions).
It looks like the performance of Qurenix also got impacted once they started their meteoric rise to popularity (one of the fastest rising signal providers we’ve ever seen). An example of were the impact of dealing with “trading for others” is likely to have impacted their results was on Friday November 9th. On this day Qurenix took a loss of about 200 pips in the morning on 6 positions. Stop losses had been set at about 50 pips, though as the market started turning Qurenix did intercept and arguable turned what could have been a higher loss into a smaller one. The review comments of some of the followers were however fairly harsh, some even suggesting they lost their account balance because of those trades (?!?! indeed, if you cannot deal with a 200 pip loss, you might as well have put your money on a single number on the roulette table as your odds would be pretty similar). What happened that afternoon though was that Qurenix opened 10 more positions, all at pretty much the same time. This was something totally new as the strategy they used before always phased in additional trades over a few hours, but never all at the same time. Obviously if the market moved with only 20 pips this would have meant the mornings losses would have been wiped out and everyone would have been happy for the week-end. However the market didn’t make that moved and the market even moved 40 pips away (and very close to the 50 pip stop level) before reversing. In addition the trades were left open over the week-end. This also wasn’t in line with Qurenix’s intra-day trading strategy as it leaves open a lot of risk while the markets are closed for the week-end and any unscheduled news events during that period might move the markets quite significantly. Hence any negative Euro news that week-end would have stopped out those 10 trades immediately when the markets opened again on Sunday evening. As it happened this wasn’t the case and Qurenix eventually closed those trades just above break-even.
Qurenix did mention before in their updates that they also trade with their own money (but not through ZuluTrade) and have been doing so for years. Their trading style does seem to suggest they have prior experience in trading. However, the question which has to be asked here is whether Qurenix really would have opened those 10 trades as well if they were only trading with their own money or whether the negative comments meant they tried to make a quick profit to cancel out the earlier losses.
Since top traders are identified as well by how they behave after making losses it was interesting to see how this ZuluTrade SP would react after this experience. In fact Qurenix updated their followers that they would aim to reduce risk by opening a maximum of 4 trades. This strategy was only maintained for a few weeks with positive, but relatively small results. On December 5th 2012 they reverted again to opening a maximum 10 trades. I.e. it looks like this signal provider tried to change their strategy to accommodate the ZuluTrade followers looking for less risk, but reverted back to their (we assume) ‘tried & tested’ strategy. Returns since then have certainly been higher again, though with the increased number of open trades, risk is obviously higher as well. I.e. while this trader tried to change their own strategy to appease some ZuluTrade followers, in the end they reverted to their best known strategy instead of trying to adjust it.
It is also apparent that Qurenix may leave trades open during news events. When applying small stop levels, this tactic can be risky since swings of 50 pips regularly occur on important news releases. E.g. on Friday January 4th 2012 this trader did have 10 positions open at the time of the release of the US non-farm payroll data. All open positions were losing before the release of the data. However, the actual numbers worked in favour of the EURUSD pair and Qurenix managed to close their positions in profit shortly after the release. Since we have to assume nobody knows the numbers before they get released there’s only a 50% chance of it going in favour, so arguable this signal provider was a bit lucky. If the results had been different, it could have easily resulted in some significant losses on all 10 open positions.
When following Qurenix it looks like you should currently allow 10 open trades and adjust your lot settings accordingly to match your account and risk settings. You should also assume that with 10 open trades, drawdows of 500 pips on open trades will occur and occasional loses of this amount are likely too. In addition Qurenix so far hasn’t had a losing streak, which over time is inevitable for any trader, so it will be interesting to see how they will react to this. From the limited historical date, Qurenix has shown some good potential, though time will tell if they can maintain their early promising results (since they’ve been a little bit lucky on a few occasions to date). One year trading on ZuluTrade should give us a better picture of their capability as a trader.
Please note that this review is included for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading Forex instruments on margin with ZuluTrade is very risky. If you’re not sure whether this type of investments is for you, you should consult an independent financial advisor.